The run-up to every postseason tends to spring different anxieties on the Sixers. The most prevalent have typically been linked to a rotation that’s forever scrutinized and rarely ironed out. Most teams encounter a similar dilemma—what is a rotation if not the most advantageous way to organize and exploit a roster’s collective talent?—but Philadelphia’s has, annually, been a source of particular consternation.
In years past, everything revolved around the need to answer a fundamental question: Should Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons be staggered or play a majority of their minutes together?
Before Philly traded for Jimmy Butler in November 2018, the former was extremely popular. Using input from his analytics staff, Brett Brown aggressively staggered Simmons and Embiid and avoided pretty much ever having fewer than two starters on the court at the same time. Philadelphia’s starting five outscored opponents by a whopping 11.4 points per 100 possessions during a magical 52-win ’17–18 season, but it also accounted for only 25.8% of their total minutes, which ranked 19th in the league.The following year they acquired Butler, whose elite pick-and-roll playmaking and aversion to outside shots duplicated some of Simmons’s on-court persona without rectifying enough of his shortcomings. It came to a head during their second-round series against the Raptors, when Embiid and Butler began spending more time in lineups that didn’t include Simmons. (The Sixers were very good when all three played, but their offense went to another level when Simmons wasn’t on the court.)Two years ago, during Al Horford and Josh Richardson’s disastrous stint, Brown tried to solve an unfixable dilemma by shifting Simmons from point guard to power forward, moving Horford to the bench and inserting Shake Milton into the starting five. In theory, as Embiid’s backup, Horford could come in and space the floor for Simmons while Joel rested. In reality, Simmons injured his knee and the Sixers were swept by Boston in the first round.In Doc Rivers’s first year at the helm, the Sixers embraced a completely different strategy. Instead of staggering Simmons and Embiid, their starting lineup spent more time together than any other in the league, while five-man units that had no starters in them made up 15% of all Philadelphia’s minutes (which was more than any other team). Both groupings helped the Sixers grab the No. 1 seed, and so long as Embiid and Simmons shared the court they were dominant in the playoffs, sporting a +17.74 net rating. The problem was that every other iteration struggled, and Philly was abysmal when both sat at the same time, getting outscored by 9.21 points per 100 possessions in 122 minutes. (These numbers don’t include Game 5 in the first round, which Embiid missed.)
Now, history is (sort of) repeating itself; Embiid and James Harden are a more compatible basketball partnership than Embiid and Simmons, but the same question remains: How do the Sixers get the most out of their star duo?
Should Rivers separate his two Hall of Famers and keep at least one on the floor at all times? Should he extend their playing time together and then brace himself for whatever comes in those non–Harden-Embiid minutes? If split, when should certain members of their supporting cast play? Is Tyrese Maxey maximized (sorry) beside Embiid and without Harden, next to both or by himself?