West Ham United have a chequered history in the transfer market but at least, under David Moyes, recruitment has been streamlined, with the progress on the pitch over the past several seasons evidencing this.
Last season's Europa Conference League triumph was clinched when Moyes signing Jarrod Bowen latched onto Moyes signing Lucas Paqueta's delightful threaded pass to score a late winner in the final against Fiorentina, with Said Benrahma (signed by Moyes again) netting an earlier penalty.
The club haven't got it right on every occasion however, and while there is still plenty of time for a player like Flynn Downes to enjoy a prosperous career, it doesn't look like this will happen at the London Stadium.
Why West Ham signed Flynn Downes
West Ham signed Downes from Championship side Swansea City for a £12m fee back in July 2022, with the lifelong Hammers fan impressing in the second tier and earning praise for his “incredible” performances by then Swans manager Russell Martin.
Martin seemingly never forgot such dynamic displays, with the manager, now leading Southampton, swooping for the player last summer and bringing him to the south coast on a one-year loan deal.
But how did it get to that point, one year on from a joyous arrival at his boyhood club? The London club had tracked Downes since 2020 and saw him as the perfect replacement for the retiring Mark Noble and a progressive move for a multi-faceted midfielder, a typifier of the modern game and the direction West Ham was headed.
“He is the perfect athlete now for football: he’s tall, strong, wiry, quick and exceptionally fit. He fits the profile of what you probably see in top midfielders in the Premier League," said former Ipswich Under-18s coach Alan Lee, speaking to The Athletic.
Last season, however, Downes only started seven times in the Premier League, and while he played a prominent role in the triumphant European conquest, his failure to cement a starting spot pushed him away last summer, in need of game time and with no assurances that he would receive that under Moyes at West Ham.
Flynn Downes' market value in 2024
Now 25 years old, Downes is thriving at Southampton – Martin has hailed him once again as an "aggressive" and "brilliant athlete" – but he wasn't robust or proactive enough in the Premier League, crisp in his distribution with an 89% success rate but averaging only 0.1 key passes, 0.8 tackles, 0.3 interceptions and 1.8 successful duels per game, as per Sofascore.
Sure, he was far more impressive in the Conference League, averaging two tackles per game and succeeding with 60% of his contested duels, but a lack of consistency in the English top-flight precludes hopes of success under a manager like Moyes, who is a proven winner.
Because of this, the £25k-per-week ace is now worth just £3m, according to Football Transfers' valuation model, which takes him below even West Ham utility man Ben Johnson, who is valued at just £3.7m.
Angelo Ogbonna
35
£340,000
Aaron Cresswell
34
£940,000
Lukasz Fabianski
38
£2.7m
Ben Johnson
24
£3.7m
Divin Mubama
19
£3.8m
After an exciting spurt of progress in 2021/22, starting 16 Premier League matches, Johnson has fallen by the wayside somewhat and plays second fiddle to Vladimir Coufal, making just four Premier League starts this season.
Moreover, he has failed to make a single key pass in the league yet and has won 45% of his duels, with his dismal displays leading West Ham to push for his permanent exit, intent on cashing in rather than loaning the 23-year-old out, as has been the case with Downes.
Market Movers
Football FanCast's Market Movers series explores the changing landscape of the modern transfer market. How much is your club's star player or biggest flop worth today?
How Downes is playing at Southampton
In fairness, if Downes' loan move was granted in order to rekindle this form and fluency, it's worked a treat, having started 24 Championship matches so far this season for Southampton's promotion push, completing 94% of his passes, averaging 0.9 key passes, 1.9 tackles, 4.9 successful duels and 5.1 ball recoveries per game – this is a massive difference from his Premier League statistics.
He also ranks among the top 1% of midfielders across divisions similar to the Championship for pass completion, the top 3% for passes attempted and the top 13% for interceptions per 90, as per FBref, highlighting his crispness at the heart of the midfield, with elite technicality allowing him to dictate the flow, control the passages.
But this wasn't realised in the Premier League and it's not the first time a talented player has made the leap from the second tier to find game time and form hard to come by.
That said, the aforementioned Johnson has entered the final few months of his contract but Downes has indeed suffered a depreciation purely because he failed to cement a top spot in the Hammers first-team, also played across different positions (including right wing) in what was bound to disrupt the harmony of his performance.
Downes will hope to have a future at West Ham but there is a sense that he could have played his last for the east London outfit already, with The Athletic's Roshane Thomas of the opinion that Saints could fight to keep a hold of the centre-midfielder beyond the 2023/24 campaign.
One thing West Ham will be desperate to avoid is making a big loss on the player, and since he is currently marked at a transfer value 75% lower than the fee paid to secure his services less than two years ago, it might take some fierce negotiating skills to convince Southampton to place an offer totalling in the ballpark of £12m.
Both Downes and Johnson have plenty of years left on the clock and much mileage in the tank, but neither look like achieving their best years in a West Ham shirt.