da doce： The France forward is out of contract at the end of the season and widely expected to join Real Madrid on a free transfer

da bet nacional： Is this it then? Is this Kylian Mbappe's last chance to realise his "biggest dream" of firing Paris Saint-Germain to a first Champions League title? Nothing has been decided yet, of course. The path is clear for Mbappe to finally join Real Madrid on a free transfer this summer, but it was a similar story in 2022 and he ended up staying at Parc des Princes.

It would not be a massive shock to see the notoriously fickle Frenchman have yet another change of heart, particularly as we are seeing more and more reports of Mbappe's entourage being 'underwhelmed' by the financial package Florentino Perez has put together.

But while the idea of PSG losing the world's best player for nothing was once considered "impossible", it now seems probable. So, what are the chances of Mbappe bidding farewell to his hometown club with the perfect parting gift?

Getty PSG's painful history of European exits

There is no denying that the draw for the Champions League last 16 was kind to PSG. Having failed to win their group, the French champions could have been paired with the likes of Manchester City or Real Madrid – defeat would have been almost inevitable. They instead drew the lowest-ranked team left in the competition, Real Sociedad.

However, this is a tie fraught with danger for PSG. For starters, all of the pressure is on the Parisians, who are renowned for their mental fragility, a superstar-obsessed club synonymous with spectacular implosions. Only this week, the great Gigi Buffon effectively suggested that PSG actually had too many world-class talents in the team he played in.

"I was coming from Juventus, who already had strong players, but when I arrived at PSG, I thought, 'Mamma Mia! If we take all these players and bring them to Turin, we'll win the Champions League four times in a row!'" the goalkeeping icon told the BSMT podcast. "But like in all things, there are pros and cons. The likes of Mbappe, [Marco] Verratti, Neymar, Thiago Silva, and Marquinhos were incredible, but I wondered how they could not win the Champions League because it felt impossible.

"Then you understand certain dynamics with so many big players, it can become complicated – even if there was a nice environment in the dressing room that season."

AdvertisementGetty Images'Imagine the shockwaves!'

Very little has changed in the interim. If anything, the burden of trying to win the European Cup has become even heavier for PSG's players.

Despite – or perhaps, because of – their continued dominance in Ligue 1, the success of each campaign is judged by their European exploits and, as it stands, PSG are desperately hoping to avoid a third consecutive last-16 exit. Another early elimination would wreck the club's hopes of convincing Mbappe that he can win the Champions League in Paris.

And the worrying thing for PSG and their supporters is that Sociedad have absolutely nothing to lose here. They've already made history, after all, by reaching the knockout stage of the European Cup for just the second time, meaning this is a tie, and indeed a challenge, that they should actually savour.

As coach Imanol Alguacil said, "Imagine the shockwaves that would come with eliminating PSG! If we manage to play as we did against Inter, who failed to beat us home or away [1-1 and 0-0], then why can't we do it against Paris?" It's a valid question.

Getty Meanest defence in the UCL

La Real do not have a lot of goals in them – even if Takefusa Kubo is an exciting attacking talent – and their small squad has been stretched to breaking point by competing on three fronts (Sociedad are also through to the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey), resulting in them slipping to seventh in La Liga after a run of just one win from their last eight games. However, Alguacil has put together a wonderfully well-drilled and disciplined team that has been thriving in continental competition.

Thanks to those two draws with Inter (and it's worth noting that La Real dominated the first meeting in San Sebastian), the Basques ended up topping a group that contained not only last season's runners-up, but also Benfica, who were quarter-finalists a year ago. Even more impressively, they went through without losing a game, and conceded a tournament-low two goals.

It's obvious, then, that Sociedad's strategy at Parc des Princes on Wednesday will be to rely on their excellent midfielders Martin Zubimendi and Mikel Merino to disrupt PSG in possession and protect a back four that has been very well led by Igor Zubeldia this season.

GettyPSG's expensive but inefficient attack

Obviously, PSG do not lack players capable of breaking down defences. Despite leaving Mbappe on the bench for the entirety of of Saturday's Ligue 1 win over Lille, coach Luis Enrique was still able to field Randal Kolo Muani, Ousmane Dembele and Goncalo Ramos (three attackers bought for a combined €195 million last summer), while Bradley Barcola, a €45m signing from Lyon, was introduced as a second-half substitute.

As Buffon alluded to, though, the issue at PSG has always been getting the most out of the squad, and Luis Enrique hasn't yet solved that dilemma. The Spaniard has grown increasingly irritated by questions about the fluctuating form of Ramos and Kolo Muani, while Dembele's almost total lack of an end product (zero goals or assists in this season's Champions League) is the stuff of legend at this stage.

It's also worth remembering that PSG only scraped through to the last 16, the beneficiaries of a ludicrous handball decision at home to Newcastle which helped them pip AC Milan to second spot in Group F on account of their superior head-to-head record – despite winning just two of their six games.